A Random Walk Down Wall Street

Malkiel outlines how investors are likely to receive greater return on their investments if they invest in “broad stock-market index” (19) rather than investing through a managed equity fund. An investor that invested $10,000 in the first index fund in 1977 would have earned $666,467 more by 2022 than an investor that invested $10,000 in an average managed mutual fund. Index funds are known as a smart investment in 2023, but when the first edition of Random Walk was published in 1973, reception was poor. In 1977, when Jack Bogle and the Vanguard Group created the first index fund, they only sold less than 6% of available shares. Index funds rely on EMH, or the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which states that the stock market reflects changes in value immediately, and opportunities for extraordinary gains are temporary and carry greater risk. The term “random walk” refers to the unforecastable nature of these changes, in which random decisions can potentially outperform strategic planning. Noting the stock market bubbles in 2021, following an inflation of the GameStop stock, as well as the bubble that lasted from 1996 to 2000, Malkiel warns that no one can predict the extent of a bubble.